October 6, 2008

• The winter of 2007-2008
  proved to be exceptionally cold and stormy in the northern hemisphere,
  contrary to global warming models. By contrast, the summer of 2007 was
  one of the warmest ever recorded in the high arctic. This warming led
  to a massive melt of polar sea ice, and concern that the Greenland ice
  sheet was becoming unstable. The 2007-2008 winter weather was
  particularly harsh in Afghanistan and in the central United States.
  
  
  In Afghanistan as in many other areas of the planet, record snowfalls
  were recorded, and many people were left isolated for extended periods.
  Some suffered frostbite, others died in this region, despite the fact
  that it is accustomed to cold winters. Similarly, the heaviest snowfall
  in at least 50 years caused billions of dollars of damage in China. The
  central United States endured an off-the-charts record number of
  tornados for the winter season, with hundreds of deaths and property
  damage across ten states measured in the billions of dollars.
  
  
  At the same time, there appears to be a major and unexpected change
  taking place on the sun. Specifically, despite the appearance of a
  high-latitude reverse polarity sunspot on December 14, 2007, the sun,
  as of February, remained devoid of the sunspots that would signal the
  beginning of the next solar maximum. Normally, the appearance of such a
  sunspot signals the beginning of a period of higher solar activity, and
  NASA scientists had predicted in 2005 that the 2008-2011 solar max
  would be one of the most intense on record.
  
  
  The last time the sun went into 'hibernation' began in approximately
  1250, and lasted, with cyclic changes, into the mid 18th century. There
  was an apparent overall decline in solar output lasting for four
  centuries, followed by conditions similar to those that had been
  present prior to 1250, when there were four clearly defined seasons in
  the planet's temperate zones, which has been true again since around
  1750.
  
  
  During that four hundred year period, seasonal change declined, and
  there were many years without real summers. The extremely cold and
  rainy years of 1315-1317 resulted in what remains the worst famine that
  has been recorded in Europe.
  
  
  Prior to 1250, glacial retreat and other warming signs were present,
  but they were not as extreme as they are now, and the amount of methane
  in the atmosphere was just beginning to rise, as melting permafrost
  released this greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. Once solar output
  began to decline, methane dropped. Carbon dioxide levels had remained
  relatively stable during the period, only beginning to rise with the
  advent of the industrial revolution in the 18th century, when a pattern
  of air pollution similar to that generated by the Roman Empire in the
  2nd through the 4th centuries returned. By the 19th Century, the carbon
  dioxide profile of earth's atmosphere began to appear more like what
  has been measured at the climax of previous interglacials.
  
  
  At present, the gas profile of the atmosphere is similar to that which
  appears at the end of interglacials, and it is possible that, if
  another period of reduced solar output is in the offing, a new ice age
  could begin, following a pattern similar to that predicted in the book
  Superstorm. In the past, increased solar output has led to the retreat
  of glaciers, exposing millions of square miles of previously frozen
  soils to thawing, with the result that massive quantities of methane
  have entered the atmosphere, resulting in even higher temperatures and,
  in the end, the appearance of another interglacial period of relatively
  warm weather. During this period, greenhouse gasses have at first
  declined, then risen again as continued increases in solar output have
  resulted in high arctic heating.
  
  
  Then, when solar output suddenly drops again, a period of extremely
  violent weather has followed, culminating in a winter of very extensive
  snowfall over the northern hemisphere, followed by a summer where the
  combination of the increased reflectivity of the snowpack and reduced
  solar output causes the snow to fail to melt, with the result that the
  next winter brings more snow, and another ice age commences.
  
  
  During a period of glaciation, the planet's reflectivity, or albedo,
  rises so high that increases in solar output are apparently not enough
  to prevent further cooling and more glacial expansion. However, the
  trapping of so much water in the glaciers eventually leads to the end
  of further snowfall and a gradual decline in albedo as the ice-cover
  ages. In the end, a point comes when increased solar output starts to
  melt the ice.
  
  
  At present, the question of what the sun will do over the next few
  years is of overwhelming importance in understanding how humanity might
  most usefully minimize the effects of what appears to be a period of
  sudden climate change that is rapidly gaining momentum.
  
  
  Already, one effect of the extraordinarily disturbed weather earth has
  been experiencing in recent years has been a decline in food supplies,
  especially wheat, and subsequent dramatic rises in price, and the
  possibility of radically altered growing seasons are upon us, and are
  an immediate threat to the welfare of the species.
  
  
  Massive storms are already upon us, and the whole northern temperate
  zone is at continuous risk of destructive weather. No matter what
  happens to the sun, it is probable that the central States will
  experience many seasons of dangerous weather from now on, and
  destruction due to tornadic windstorms and blizzards is apt to rise
  dramatically and continuously. If global warming continues, these
  storms will gradually taper off because the temperature differential
  between the troposphere and the stratosphere will decline. Over the
  hurricane seasons of 2006 and 2007, the decline in hurricanes was a
  result of this effect. However, if solar output does become, very harsh
  weather and serious crop failures will be the inevitable result,
  including a resumption of hurricanes.
  
  
  Unfortunately, the recordation of solar activity is too new and our
  understanding of the way stars work too limited to enable us to be
  certain of what is happening. This is why, just a few months ago, an
  enormous solar maximum was being predicted, and it is not clear why it
  has not materialized. In addition, the connection between the solar
  cycle and solar output is not well understood. All we know is that,
  between 1650 and 1770, when the Little Ice Age was at its most intense,
  almost no sunspots were recorded.
  
  
  At present, there is a general human migration northward, as
  populations from Africa, the Middle East and Latin America press into
  more prosperous northern economies, and the developed world, which
  mostly clusters in the northern temperate region of the planet,
  struggles with issues of immigration. However, if the planet becomes
  colder, that trend will reverse, and quite suddenly, as the most
  exposed northern populations begin a southward migration that could
  become desperate.
  
  
  Planetary emission of greenhouse gasses is a powerful influence on both
  weather and, on a larger scale, climate, and it is when greenhouses gas
  levels are high and solar output drops that ice ages start. There is no
  way to predict such an outcome at this time, but if the next solar max
  does not take place, and solar activity remains low, this will become a
  possibility, along with the less radical outcome of another 'little ice
  age.' If the sun does return to normal output levels, runaway global
  warming will resume.
  
  
  There has probably never been a time in recorded history that so many
  unknowns have converged when the species was so vulnerable to any
  substantial climate change at all. No matter how it unfolds, the fact
  remains that we are in the early years of a period of sudden climate
  change, and, with the decline in agricultural yields and the increase
  in severe weather worldwide, already feeling its effects.
  
  
  Previously, this section of the Unknowncountry.com website has
  recommended that users accept the Canadian Prime Ministers challenge to
  reduce their personal output of greenhouse gasses. At present, there
  are many new ways of doing this, both on a personal level and on a
  larger scale. It is clear that there are going to be significant
  changes in resource usage patterns that will lead to emissions
  reduction in the west. This will not take place in India and China,
  with the result that the net effect of human efforts to conserve will
  probably be nil.
  
  
  Unfortunately, neither China nor India has a sufficiently high level of
  governmental organization to regulate their new industrial sectors, let
  alone induce them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. No matter how
  co-operative these governments are, until their societies develop a
  good deal further, their efforts will not be effective.
  
  
  What concerned individuals can most usefully do is to watch the weather
  for changes that may affect them, and plan accordingly both in the
  short and medium terms. Short term planning would involve being
  prepared for heavy weather in areas where it is most likely to occur.
  Medium term planning might involve the creation of useful personal
  gardens, the putting by of food, and possibly a move south after two or
  three successive failed summers, should that occur. Long term planning
  is not a meaningful option at this time.
  
  
  Of course, reducing greenhouse gas emissions should continue to be a
  priority, in order to do whatever possible to blunt the weather
  extremes that are beginning to prove so damaging to human welfare.
  
  
  
  
  

  • 9:21 am
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